The 2015 Canadian federal election: Do demographics tell the tale?

So, what happened on Oct. 19 to sweep Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservatives from power, and install in their place a Liberal majority government led by Prime Minister-designate Justin Trudeau?

In an effort to figure that out, I stayed up late Friday night and into the early hours of Saturday morning, downloading data from the 2011 National Household Survey for 70 random federal constituencies — a little more than 20 percent of the total — based on their 2013 boundaries, and incorporated the latest Elections Canada vote counts.

Then, after getting some sleep, I used a common spreadsheet technique called the Pearson Correlation  — no relation to the former prime minister by that name — to measure the closeness of the relationship between each party’s vote count in those 70 constituencies and different aspects of their demographic composition. The Pearson Correlation uses a scale from -1.00 to +1.00. The closer the correlation is to the extreme ends of the scale, the tighter the apparent relationship.

What jumps out about the Liberal Party is the way in which it tended to do better in constituencies with larger concentrations of university graduates, suggesting the possibility that either this was a group that felt particularly attracted to the Liberals, or just more averse to the other parties.

A solid relationship also seems to exist between the size of the Liberal vote and the number of residents being of various Middle Eastern ancestries, and the finance and insurance sector workforce in the area.

On the other hand, agricultural or resource sector employment, and trades training, seemed to have a negative effect on the size of the Liberal vote, suggesting lingering memories of Pierre Trudeau’s strained relations with these groups continues to have an effect. Some might be surprised to hear that the size of the local Indigenous community tended to have a negative effect on the size of the Liberal vote.

The Conservative vote tended to be higher in constituencies with larger Western and Northern European ancestry populations, and in those with larger non-Catholic Christian populations, recalling Mr. Harper’s comments about “old-stock Canadians”. Yet the Conservatives also tended to do better when the number of constituents of Eastern European ancestry was larger, suggesting the Conservatives’ core messages might resonate well with these groups. Unsurprisingly, larger concentrations of six-digit income households, and of management occupations, also tended to be associated with a larger Conservative vote.

The size of the French-speaking population in a riding stood out as being the factor most negatively associated with the size of the Conservative vote, as did the size of the local Catholic population, suggesting the Conservatives might need to make amends to both as it moves into the post-Harper era.  Unsurprisingly, the concentration of low-income households also appeared to have a depressing effect on the Conservative vote.

As for the NDP, virtually everything that seemed to work to their candidates’ favour, and to their detriment, was related directly or indirectly to income. The NDP tended to do better in constituencies with larger numbers of households earning less than $60,000; and their fortunes seemed to be particularly well-tied to the concentration of households in the $10,000 to $14,999 range. But higher incomes, larger average family sizes and higher rental housing costs and home sizes appeared to depress the NDP vote.

The Bloc Québécois tended to do better in constituencies with higher concentrations of born-and-raised Quebeckers, and worse in those with larger immigrant communities, following a long-standing fault line in Québécois politics. Larger concentrations of trades workers and health care workers also seemed to work a little bit to the BQ’s favour, suggesting this is a party with some of the working-class appeal traditionally associated with the NDP in the rest of Canada.

One of the curiosities of the Green vote is that it seems to be positively associated with the size of the Danish and Finnish-speaking populations: a spurious correlation, or a sign that this party that has often expressed Nordic sentiments has some appeal to those with Nordic roots? The Green vote also seems to be higher when the concentration of people with no religious affiliation is higher, which might be counterintuitive given leader Elizabeth May’s well-known Christian faith, but perhaps less so if one sees the Greens as the freethinkers of Canadian politics, averse to the demands of loyalty and conformity that have traditionally shaped Canadian political parties.

And finally, the vote itself. Voter turnout tended to rise with average and median incomes, and to be lower in constituencies with relatively high concentrations of social benefits recipients and people with very low levels of formal education. While low voter turnout is often assumed to be a “youth problem”, it also appears to be a “poverty problem”.

If you are one of those rare people who gets a kick out of scanning through a table full of correlations, feel free to go nuts here.

 

Constituencies included: Abitibi Temiscamingue, Acadie Bathurst, Ajax, Alfred-Pellan, Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing, Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill, Barrie-Innisfil, Barrie Springwater, Battlefords-Lloydminster, Beausejour, Berthier-Maskinonge, Bow River, Brampton East, Brampton North, Brandon-Souris, Brome-Missisquoi, Burlington, Calgary-Shepard, Calgary Signal Hill, Cariboo-Prince George, , Chicoutimi-le-Fjord, Cowichan Malahat, Dartmouth-Cole Harbour, Don Valley West, Edmonton Mill Woods, Elgin-Middlesex-London, Essex, Etobicoke Centre, Grande Prairie-Mackenzie, Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes, Hull-Aylmer, Humber River-Black Creek, Joliette, Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, Laurier-Sainte Marie, Lethbridge, London North Centre, London West, Madawaska, Marc-Aurele-Fortin, Mirabel, Mississauga Lakeshore, Mississauga-Malton, Montmagny, Nanaimo Ladysmith, Nepean, New Brunswick Southwest, Newmarket-Aurora, Niagara West, Oakville-North Burlington, Oshawa, Ottawa Centre, Parry Sound-Muskoka, Port Moody-Coquitlam, Regina Lewvan, Repentigny, Richmond Centre, Rosemont-la-Petite-Patrie, Sackville-Preston, Saskatoon University, St. Boniface-St. Vital, Therese-de-Blainville, Toronto Danforth, Vancouver East, Vaudreuil-Soulanges, Vimy, Whitby, Winnipeg North, York Centre, and Yorkton-Melville.

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About theviewfromseven
A lone wolf and a bit of a contrarian who sometimes has something to share.

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